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Soochow securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December. According to the soochow securities Research Report, the CPI of the United States rebounded to +2.75% in November as scheduled, and the CPI that did not exceed expectations cleared the last obstacle for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. In the short term, the combination of low base and high viscosity means that CPI is expected to continue to rebound to +2.8% in December. In the medium term, Trump is expected to drive out illegal immigrants on the first day after taking office, which will aggravate the risk of stagflation in the labor market. However, the intensification of wage inflation stickiness may be concealed by the downward movement of non-agricultural centers in the same period, the expectation of increasing oil prices and the high base in the first half of 2025. The market's concern about "stagnation" may provide room for the Fed to cut interest rates smoothly in the first half of 2025. However, in the second half of 2025, the cumulative interest rate cuts will give support to the economy, the persistence of inflation stickiness and the landing of Trump's tax reduction policy will force the Fed to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December, 25bps in March and June next year, and stop cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. The end point of the policy interest rate in 2025 is [3.75,4.0]%.Meta released a new AI tool, which can enhance the experience of the Meta-universe. On Thursday, the American technology giant Meta said that it would release an artificial intelligence model called Meta Motivo, which can control the actions of a digital agent similar to human beings and may enhance the experience of the meta-universe. According to the company, Meta Motivo solves the common body control problems in digital avatars, enabling them to exercise in a more realistic and human-like way. "We believe that this research can pave the way for a fully concrete agent in the meta-universe, resulting in a more realistic NPC (non-player character), democratization of character animation, and a new immersive experience."A delegation of Japanese young and middle-aged military officers visited China. Today, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense, said that at the invitation of China Institute of International Strategic Studies, a delegation of Japanese young and middle-aged military officers will visit China from November 26th to December 4th. The Sino-Japanese exchange program for young and middle-aged officers began in 2001, which played an important role in enhancing understanding and trust between the defense departments of the two countries. We are willing to work with Japan to continue to promote mutual visits and exchanges and provide positive energy for the improvement and development of bilateral relations.

Full-page observation of People's Daily: Accelerate the construction of world-class universities and advantageous disciplines with China characteristics.Citic Jiantou Pharmaceutical's 2025 strategy: looking for new additions and integration opportunities. Citic Jiantou said that looking forward to 2025, the reform policy in the medical field has been normalized, and the most noteworthy incremental policy in the medical insurance field is to establish a diversified payment system. The medical field is about to usher in the reform of "deep water areas" such as salary system and graded diagnosis and treatment, which is in line with expectations as a whole. At the same time, the innovation of China's pharmaceutical industry has gradually stepped onto the international stage, some sub-sectors will be marginally improved, and industry integration will begin. We are optimistic about the investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry in 2025. It is suggested to focus on the new increase (innovation, going out to sea, marginal change) and industry integration opportunities.New Zealand wants to persuade the United States not to impose tariffs after Trump takes office. New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis said that after US President-elect Donald Trump takes office, New Zealand should be exempted from imposing comprehensive tariffs, and asked officials to be sensible to the United States. "Our initial position was please don't do this," Willis said in an interview in Wellington. "We let diplomats show the best of New Zealand."

Employees hide $154 million in accounts. Macy's said that internal control was ineffective. On Thursday, Macy's said that a reassessment of its financial situation showed that as of February this year, the internal control (including proper record maintenance) of the chain department store was not effective. The retailer launched an evaluation at the end of November after discovering that an employee had concealed as much as $154 million in expenses for many years. Therefore, the company postponed the release of the third quarter earnings report until December 11th. Macy's said that under the supervision of the board of directors, Tony Spring, its CEO, and Adrian Mitchell, its chief financial officer, re-evaluated the effectiveness of internal control, and pointed out that its financial report was not effective as of February 3 due to major defects. The department store chain said that it is implementing changes to improve internal control and make up for major defects.Ministry of Finance of Korea: If the volatility is excessively intensified, more market stabilization measures will be taken.CICC: Cloud and terminal AI landing In 2025, the localization of semiconductors and components ushered in a new cycle. According to CICC's research report, in 2024, semiconductors and components as a whole were in the upward stage of prosperity. It is expected that inventory, supply and demand will stabilize in 2025, and AI cloud and terminal demand will land, and domestic elements will usher in a new cycle. It is expected that in 2025, the AI ​ ​ replacement tide is expected to accelerate the downstream demand growth of the semiconductor design sector. We are optimistic about the demand expansion of cloud and end-side computing chips driven by AI, and the alpha level of individual stocks is optimistic about the pull of product structure expansion on the performance of related companies, and it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by mergers and acquisitions for some tracks. It is expected that the supply and demand of chip manufacturing will approach a balance in 2025, and the capacity utilization rate will remain at a reasonable level; Among them, the research and development of advanced process manufacturing is expected to continue to advance, driving the development of equipment, parts, materials and design tools.